Contacts: Larry Waldman, (505) 277.7077 Steve Carr, (505) 277.1821

December 17, 2003 NEW MEXICO ECONOMIC GROWTH CONTINUES TO OUTPACE THE U.S.; BUT GAP WILL SHRINK BY END OF 2004 Since the beginning of last year, the New Mexico economy has been one of the strongest in the nation says UNM’s Bureau of Business and Economic Research (BBER) Senior Economist Larry Waldman. In 2002, nonagricultural employment growth of 1.2 percent was large enough to rank New Mexico second among all states. For the first half of 2003, overall employment growth increased to 1.7 percent, which still placed New Mexico second nationally. In the third quarter of 2003, employment growth dipped slightly to 1.6 percent, but New Mexico was still ranked among the top five among all states. In 2002, even though New Mexico ranked second, the 1.2 percent gain was only about half of the state’s average long-term (1980 to 2000) increase. The high rank in 2002 occurred because most other states were in bad fiscal shape, losing jobs and facing budget deficits. In 2002, New Mexico was one of the few states without a deficit and was gaining enough jobs, in several areas, to overcome employment declines in construction, manufacturing and mining. The data included jobs in health care and social assistance, Native American casinos and resorts (local government) and at Los Alamos National Lab (state government). New Mexico job growth will continue to increase in the coming years because the mining, construction and manufacturing sectors will no longer hold the economy back, and in concert with numerous other expanding sectors, will propel the economy forward. Total nonagricultural employment growth will increase from 1.7 percent (2003) to 1.9 percent next year and 2.2 percent in 2005. Strength in 2003 and beyond will come from health care & social assistance, construction, information, professional, scientific & technical services and educational services. The manufacturing sector will return to growth mode in 2005. Meanwhile, the national economy is on the road to recovery. Production (real gross domestic product) jumped 8.2 percent in the third quarter of 2003, the largest increase in nearly 20 years. While economic growth in New Mexico increases slowly, growth at the national level will be much more rapid. U.S. economic expansion will catch up to New Mexico near the end of 2004. For more information contact Waldman at 277-7077 or via e-mail at: lwaldman@unm.edu. # # #

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