Media Contact: Laurie Mellas Ramirez, 505-277-5915

Aug. 5, 2004

UNM SURVEY PROVIDES DATA ON NEW MEXICO DEMOCRATIC CAUCUS VOTERS

The University of New Mexico Political Science Department today released results of a voter survey conducted following the New Mexico Democratic Presidential Caucus Feb. 3.

Researchers queried New Mexico Democratic voters about President George W. Bush's job performance, ways in which they received information on candidates competing for the party nomination, and about the role they played in the campaigns.

“Because of New Mexico's key position in the nomination process, we wanted to learn about the decision making process used by these important voters and formulated a survey to do so,” said UNM Political Science Professor Lonna Atkeson.

The Democratic Party of New Mexico provided a sample of caucus voters. Nearly 4,500 voters were contacted and provided an Internet address to take the survey or given an option to reply via U.S. mail. More than 1,000 surveys were completed for a response rate of 23.4 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus three percent.

A comparison of actual statewide and survey sample caucus results show similar outcomes further validating the data. For example, 39.8 percent of those surveyed said they would vote for John Kerry, while 42.6 percent was the actual statewide result. 20.5 percent surveyed said they would cast a vote for Wesley Clark, 20.4 did. 16.2 surveyed said Howard Dean had their vote and 16.4 was the actual result.

A number of questions were designed to assess caucus voters' evaluations of President Bush. With the exception of his war on terror, more than three-fifths of caucus voters strongly disapproved of the job he is doing as president, his handling of the economy and the war in Iraq. Even in the war on terror, an issue where the president receives the strongest support, about one-half, or 48 percent, strongly disapproved and more than a quarter disapproved.

“Given that we have a sample of Democratic Party activists it is not surprising to find that opinions of President Bush are not very favorable,” Atkeson reported. “In the overall evaluation, only about seven percent of respondents are willing to rate him above average or outstanding and about 10 percent rate his performance as average.

“That said, it is interesting to note that about 10 percent of our sample voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and their evaluations of Bush significantly differ from their Democratic counterparts who voted for Gore. Respondents felt much more favorable toward the president if they voted for him.”

The UNM researchers data shows that caucus voters are very engaged in this year's presidential election.

Nearly 9 of 10 voters indicated they were “very interested” in the campaign. Voters were most active in the John Kerry campaign, with survey results showing nearly 30 percent of them engaged in a least one activity such as attending a rally, fundraising, canvassing or contributing. General Wesley Clark and Howard Dean were nearly tied with slightly more than 15 percent of caucus voters engaged in their campaign activities.

Most voters learned about candidates through TV or radio ads, but this was closely followed by direct campaign contact or information from friends and family.

“Interestingly, with the exception of Al Sharpton, who was not on the New Mexico ballot, the percentages clearly show that a majority of voters learned in a variety of ways about each candidate,” Atkeson noted.

About 92 percent of caucus voters participated in one or more learning event featuring Kerry. Clark and John Edwards also had plenty of exposure with about 84 percent and 82 percent of caucus voters respectively engaging in at least one learning event. The means, however, indicate that Dean reached the most voters with an average learning score of 2.35 followed closely by Kerry who had a score of 2.28 on the researcher's 8-point scale.

Prior to the New Mexico caucus, two nominating events were held, the Iowa Caucus Jan. 24 and the New Hampshire primary Jan. 27. Kerry gained momentum in those earlier contests, clearly influencing New Mexico voters, results show.

When asked how early they chose a candidate, about one-quarter of voters decided prior to the Iowa and New Hampshire contests. Among early deciders, Kerry was in a close contest with Clark and Dean.

“While we found no gender differences in voter choice, we did find that self-identified Hispanics and self-identified whites voted somewhat differently,” Atkeson said. For both groups, the most likely choice was Kerry, but Hispanic voters clearly offered more support with 50.3 percent selecting the senator from Massachusetts, while only 36.9 percent of whites voted forhim.

When voters were asked to rank their preference for their party's nomination from the following contenders – Kerry, Clark, Dean, Edwards and Sharpton, along with Dick Gephardt, Dennis Kucinich and Joe Lieberman – rankings prove interesting. Edwards, who came in a distant fourth in actual statewide results, was their second preference after Kerry. “This suggests that the choice of Edwards as the vice presidential pick was perhaps a good one,” Atkeson said.

Researchers concluded that Democratic “activist voters” attitudes toward President Bush are fairly extreme. They also found voters were very informed about the candidates and exceptionally engaged in the election. Many voters actively campaigned for one of the party contenders. “It is also clear that the winner of the nomination, John Kerry, converted his momentum from the earliest campaigns into greater electability ratings increasing his attractiveness to Democratic voters,” Atkeson said.

The UNM Research Allocation Committee funded the study. In addition to Atkeson, UNM political science faculty, staff and students provided research support.

To view the entire survey, visit www.unm.edu/~caucus04 .

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