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Human Decision-Making: Rationale of Our Reasoning
Judith A. Mast
Academic Setting
This study and curriculum is for students at Ernie Pyle Middle School in the gifted language arts / literature program. The focus is on eighth graders, but this unit may be used in simplified form for sixth and seventh graders. Although the gifted program is offered through language arts and literature, the material is covered in thematic units that encourage participation of other disciplines. The majority of students are Hispanic and many speak Spanish at home. The school is situated in a low socioeconomic community where education is not necessarily a high priority.
The students need exposure to a wide variety of writings that promote conscious thought and will hopefully make them competitive with other students in the city. Developing thinking strategies, exercising creative thought, and practicing problem solving are three main goals of the gifted program. Character development is also important as well as making students aware of choices and discussing responsibilities and ramifications of choices.
Decision making models need to be clarified in order to help the students understand the process necessary for making rational decisions. Groundwork must be laid in giving general information, examples, tools, and practical experiences. A "decision tree" is one tool that will be given to the students to help them see a clear layout of the problem that shows all choices considered. Graphs, experiments, and game situations will reinforce the material given. Uncertainty and emotional influences also need to be addressed to help students see how they play a part in decision-making. Hopefully this unit will heighten the students’ consciousness of choice and will lead to making better decisions.
The topic of rational and irrational thought is something that can be incorporated quite easily into the curriculum. Students are making many decisions every day. At their age, many of their decision-making processes are not based on sound judgment. Students falter on which group of friends to hang around with, which homework has the highest priority, and what is actually important to them in their own social-emotional development. At the same time they are trying to appease their parents and friends who often have conflicting points of view. An opportunity cost model will be introduced to show the tradeoffs of different scheduling practices. The simple benefits given with the same time invested may yield varying affects. The students are trying to understand the concepts of fairness and morality, taking a stand, and making a difference. However, many are not very aware of the complexities their lives are based upon. Life could be easier if a little more time was spent on the planning of the actions.
This unit will be the introductory unit of the school year relating to who am I –
what affects my thoughts and my actions? Background will be given through classic examples
of famous accounts of decision-making: Hatfield vs. McCoy, Billy the Kid, Bonnie and Clyde
and other villains with a cause. Short stories ("Ransom of the Red Chief" and
"Gift of the Magi") and excerpts from novels and plays (Romeo and Juliet,
Macbeth) will depict examples of obvious flawed decision making schemes. Essays relating
to the topics of fear, belonging, choices, and taking a stand, will be used to intermingle
current issues that are highly volatile. One novel, The Chocolate War, will be
studied to show how decisions develop the character and the importance of outcome in the
book. The decisions of the protagonist will be diagramed to clearly show the options of
the character. Discussions of choice, emotion, cost, and benefit will be experienced.
Students will use the experiences to set personal goals for their behaviors throughout the
year. This unit will include reading, writing, "game theory," and strategies for
accomplishing goals and making rational decisions. 
Narrative
Everyone is continually confronted with conflicts that require problem solving. From the moment we get up in the morning to the time we go to sleep, our minds are constantly being bombarded with issues that require decisions. The decision–making process is not always based on sound judgment. The purpose of this unit is to provide decision-making tools that will help promote rational thinking and thoughtful decisions. The unit is designed as an introduction to the topic of decision-making. General concepts will be introduced through reading, discussion, experiments, and other hands on activities. Students will be asked to use critical reading and thinking skills to relate lessons to literature and to contemporary issues. The unit is then used as a framework for further studies of decision-making throughout the year. Topics will relate to literature, grouping, choices, individual organization, and goal setting.
Goals
The students will receive tools and information about decision-making that will enable them to:
a) Clarify problems
b) Understand both sides of issues
c) Weigh the advantage of both sides of issues
d) Determine the outcome with the best payoff
e) Set realistic goals
f) Prioritize their time.
Concepts of Decision Making
Making decisions occupies much of our time and energy. We make decisions both consciously and thoughtlessly. Yet every decision we make in some way influences our lives. Decisions are based on wants, needs, knowledge or lack of it, capabilities and costs. It is important to establish layers of information that will aid students in developing their own perspectives and methods of decision-making.
Students need to develop an appreciation of the many aspects that influence a decision to better understand society and people and why so many of us do things that are not in our best interest. They need to recognize who is making the decision, what are his goals, and what are the hurdles.
Sometimes we think only in our own frame of reference and do not even pay attention to the fact that some people have very different sets of goals. Many of our goals and our procedures for attaining those goals are based upon our own experiences, so a person who does not have experience with many options may not see that there are choices. For them, the most immediate payoff, whether positive or negative, may serve the purpose for their goal. They do not do a cost/benefit analysis because they feel they have no choice. They react to the problem. They do not look at it normatively to see if they could have done better.
Many decision-making tools allow students to map out possibilities that make it easier to see the choices. Once this is done, the obvious choice is not always as obvious as the decision-maker might have once thought. A list of steps to solve a problem may be similar to the following:
What are the action choices?
What are the pros and cons of each possible action?
What are the consequences of each choice?
What is the probability of each consequence?
What is the relative importance of each possibility?
What is the identification of the best course of action?(Baron)
Decision trees are valuable tools for plotting out possible actions and outcomes. A decision tree starts with the situation and expands into the possible actions to be taken. Each action is in turn broken down into consequences. The decision tree model helps one to look ahead and then reason from behind or backward. Then one can determine which series of actions more closely align with the best payoff. The decision tree can of course continue on so that future actions can be plotted from the outcomes, thus allowing many branches to be diagramed on the tree. The anticipation of future decisions or goals should help guide earlier choices. The whole decision-making process becomes more objective, which allows us to be more rational.
There are three particular decision-making situations that will be considered for this unit. The first and easiest to define consists of a single person deciding on a course of multiple choices. In this circumstance the students will want to examine the possible paths to take. They will need to list the consequences of each choice, and they need to determine the pros and cons of each outcome. Then they simply choose the action that leads to the most economical and desired outcome. Taking a simple decision from Robert Frost’s poem "The Road Not Taken," one can diagram a simple decision tree. If the situation calls for limited time to get back home, the decision tree would look something like the following (Model A, Decision Tree). In the case of limited time the rational decision would be to take the road more traveled. If the situation did not require a time limit and the hikers were looking for adventure, the preferred outcome would be for the other path.
By choosing the known path, you give up the benefits associated with other path. The decision tree model explicitly shows the costs of the alternative path not chosen. The opportunity cost of taking the path more traveled is the possible lack of great adventure and exciting scenery. However, in order to meet the goal of getting home one time, this is wise to sacrifice.
The second type of decision-making involves another player in the decision. In this circumstance, you have to respond to the actions of the other person. This is a sequential decision design in that each person reacts to the action of the other until a final outcome is determined. Decisions made at earlier points must look ahead not only to future decisions, but also to the possible responses of the other players. Now all of the steps of Baron’s design will come into play. The second-guessing strategies of cost verses benefit as well as the element of empathy will influence the understanding of each person’s choices. This type of multiple player decision-making is referred to as game theory. The study of strategic behaviors has a place in conflict situations. When two or more decision-makers have different objectives and act on the same system or share the same resources, they are in a game or conflict situation. In the story "The Ransom of Red Chief" by O. Henry, two kidnappers must determine how much ransom to ask for the son of a wealthy mortgage financier. They need $2000 to close a deal in western Illinois. However, after sitting with the kidnapped boy for a night and experiencing his horrid behavior, they begin to doubt the value they should place on the child’s ransom. If the mortgage financier pays, everything is smooth. However, the kidnappers are beginning to doubt the big price. They indeed must continue through Baron’s six steps to determine a suitable action. And of course, the outcome ends up being worse than they even imagined (Model B). The decision tree was only played out for the two kidnappers. An opposing tree could be drawn of the father’s decisions. It is easy to see that the branch on the high ransom side will obviously take more work, time and energy, if the father refuses to pay, which is indeed what happened.
Students can design decision trees for virtually any literature. All stories contain a conflict that requires some form of decision making. There are many game situations that follow this sequential design that can also be plotted. Examples are chess, checkers, centipede game, labyrinth, or any game where the action of one depends on the actions of the other player.
Finally, a spontaneous cooperation design involves a great deal of game theory in determining the action. Both parties respond at the same time making mind play an important part in determining action. Now neither side knows how the other will respond, so it is important to look for signals to cue what the other party may be thinking. Of course, the options open to each are usually known. However, it may be difficult to predict how the other party will respond due to a number of issues. There may be no equality in the outcome. There may be a lack of trust. Will one risk all for his own best outcome knowing that the other player would suffer? Can marginal gain suffice when an apparent windfall will be bestowed to the other player? Is there a way to guarantee a sure win for both players? It is easy to see that signaling and reputation would play a large part of the decision. Also how far the guessing is carried out can aid or deter a beneficial outcome. I may no longer respond the way I truly think I should because I feel that you are following a certain course of action that may make me need to respond differently.
A prisoner’s dilemma is a spontaneous strategic game. One such scenario involves
two criminals caught at the scene of a crime. The cops know that they have committed the
crime, but the evidence is inadmissible. They do have enough information to put the two
away for one year that would hardly pay for the deed done. The police offer each partner a
chance to confess. If they both confess, they both get five years in jail. If only one
confesses, he will get off free, but the other partner will get 20 years. The partners are
in separate cells and cannot communicate with each other. They are both offered the same
deal. They both are expected to respond at the same time. The best payoff for each partner
is to confess and hope the partner does not (Model C). However, the best mutual gain would
be for both to remain silent (Frank, 30).
| Confess Prisoner Y |
Remain silent (Y) |
|
| Confess Prisoner X |
0 years X 20 years Y |
0 years X 20 years Y |
| Remain Silent (X) | 20 years X 0 years Y |
1 year each |
Model C
Equipping students to do this kind of thinking analysis results in positive rational growth. First of all they become skilled in organizing various information. They also become alert to the cues and signals that are often present in daily situations. Their perceptive skills improve, as they become aware that even the smallest decisions affect their goals. The concepts of bartering and mutual gains set up a climate for cooperation. This type of spontaneous game play is seen in literature also. "The Gift of the Magi" is one such story where each partner wants to please the other and sacrifices a treasure of their own to appease the other. The movie Return to Paradise is a typical prisoner’s dilemma where two men must decide whether or not to return to Malaysia to help a third friend.
When students are empowered to analyze their problems or issues, then they can make decisions that have much better outcomes. Economics is the study of how to best allocate limited resources among competing uses. Considering themselves as a valued commodity, the students can begin to distribute their time and skill to their own desired outcomes or goals. Using the science of economics, tools are given that take out much of the subjectivity in decision making. Instead, we look at probabilities, risk, bounded rationality, cost/benefit analysis, marginal satisfaction and benefits, comparative advantage, and equilibrium. Students study the issues and make a conscious choice relating to the outcome based on economic principles. It is easier to accept responsibility for the outcome when some rational thought has gone into determining the solution. Also students learn that they are not always in full control of the outcome, especially in an area where there must be cooperation in the decision. External factors such as emotion, irrational behavior, greed, and time inconsistencies often impede good selection of actions. However, if students understand the economic principles and apply the tools, they can be rest assured that they made an educated effort in solving the problem, which is always better than reacting without much thought.
Setting Goals and Organizing Efforts
Setting goals is a decision-making technique that takes a little bit of practice, but gives great benefits. By adding the practice of goal setting, students have a much better chance of controlling their situations. Students need to determine a list of their dreams. Then they should scale those down into manageable goals. Sometimes it is better to work in small steps and gain marginally. Diving into 10 feet of water without knowing how to swim can be very intimidating. Possible success needs to be the focus of the goal. Think in small, accomplishable steps. Once a goal is in mind, it needs to be placed in writing to transfer the dream or wish into something more concrete that can be dissected and worked upon.
Once a goal has been written and broken down, it then needs to be prioritized. What activities are urgent and which are important? This enables a student to determine what needs attention first. Then there needs to be a plan of action. How will one go about reaching this goal? A time commitment needs to be determined for each goal or phase of a goal. A calendar, chart, and/or sticky notes all help to keep a time schedule on track. They are also good reminders or supports for keeping focus. Some of the decision-making tools can be used to aid in this step. Lastly, one has to organize the action to take place that will advance the goal. This action has been planned with the goal in mind so backwards reasoning is again put into place. Many times students can map out a decision tree with possible obstacles to help determine action plans. Students can easily see the overall picture and the roadblocks that may play out. The path of activities then is easier to follow.
Successful students exercise their rational thinking abilities when it comes to setting
goals for school. Most take on extraordinary responsibilities in many phases of their
lives. Why are they so successful? How do they find the time to do those things that
result in such great benefits and create such a powerful reputation? The book The 7
Habits of Highly Effective Teens lists seven things that should be considered when
searching for success. Many of the habits have substantial costs, but also reap great
benefits. The seven habits are be proactive not reactive, begin with the end in mind,
prioritize, think positively, seek to understand before giving information, work together
to achieve more, and refresh yourself regularly (5). The poem "There’s a Whole
in My Sidewalk" shows the differences of acting and reacting. Sometimes there are
many consequences before one actually learns to stand up and do something new. Some of the
obstacles that tend to take place that may effect cost are time inconsistency where we do
not plan an appropriate amount of time to do the task, procrastination, peer influences,
lack of focus or motivation, overwhelming material, past reputation for failure, and
intrapersonal conflict. There is a great deal of literature that supports decision making
and goal setting. Almost any novel or story displays decisions—good and bad, played
out by various characters. Lessons are numerous and support the many avenues that can be
taken. The use of contemporary issues then can be used to practice the decision-making
strategies that are introduced through literature. This brings the use of strategies
closer to everyday life situations.
Decision-making tools
- Brainstorming
- Decision Trees
- Game Theory
- Critical Path Analysis (simplified)
- SWOT Analysis
- Force Field Analysis
Brainstorming is a technique for developing multiple solutions to a problem. Students are told to generate as many solutions as possible regardless of how off the wall they are. There is no criticism of ideas so that the boundaries of the problem may be stretched to the outer limits and so there is no risk in creating answers. The facilitator usually has a time constraint and encourages students to stay on subject. The brainstorming may be done in a group or done individually. Many times brainstorming will be a step in other methods of decision-making.
Decision trees are mind maps of information in a complex problem. They provide a structure for visually displaying alternative actions and the implications of those actions in relation to a problem. Assessing the possible outcomes becomes easier as the balanced picture of risks and rewards are displayed in the map.
Game theory is a mathematical theory of bargaining in response to multiple decision-makers. Decision trees and Prisoners Dilemma matrices are tools of game theory. They are used to illustrate the strategies and outcomes of each player, allowing the players to make more informed decisions. Game theory focuses on players who choose strategies in order to achieve the best outcome or highest payoff. Usually it is assumed that each player has two or more choices for action, each player has knowledge of the game and the opponent, and that the players know the details of the game and the payoffs available. It also assumes that the players are rational, they will seek the payoff with the highest yield. There are many instances of second-guessing to try to put each player in the most positive position possible. In game theory, the notion of equilibrium, the balance point, becomes apparent. Here there is nothing to gain by changing strategy. Game theory allows students to analyze the data that drives cooperative venture and helps them understand the view of each person involved.
Critical path analysis is a tool that helps you calculate the time necessary to complete a project. It helps with scheduling and monitoring a project by first laying out the entire project in detail. Some of the activities necessary can be done simultaneously while others must be sequential. First you list all the parts of the project that are to be done, then you line up each task with a date or time schedule. Plot each item and time chart on graph paper. Finally you schedule your line of action paying attention to order, duration, and sequence. Critical path analysis is an effective way of assessing tasks that must be carried out, which parts can be done in parallel, the shortest time necessary for completion, resources needed, task priorities, and the scheduling of the project.
SWOT analysis is a method of identifying strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats by making charts of each and examining obvious deficits. This is a tool that allows the examination of current status as well as future status. It shows problems that require critical decisions. Strengths and weaknesses show internal conditions such as leadership, co-workers, workspace, etc. Opportunities and threats show external factors such as competition, social issues, and social trends. This is a simple tool used to drive strategic thinking. Looking at the columns often reveals changes that can successfully be made or plans that can be put into action.
One could even rate possible outcomes the positive and negative numbers based on how feasible each is to put into action.
Force field analysis is a tool that gives a whole view of forces, both positive
and negative, so that the decision can take into account all the interests. The approach
is actually a form of focused brainstorming. First you write down the issue to be
deliberated. Then you create two cells or lists for the advantages that are considered the
driving forces and the disadvantages or the restraining forces. Write down all the forces
for that decision in a column to the left, and all the forces against the decision to the
right. You then analyze the listed items by assigning numerical values of 1 to 5.
Calculate the values and decide in favor of the stronger side. The final decisions are
made by objective means, although the assigning of values is somewhat subjective.
Vocabulary
Bartering—the direct exchange of one good for another, without the use of money
Bounded rationality—decisions that consider whether the risk of a less than ideal
outcome is worth the time/effort it takes to consider every option
Cognitive dissonance—maintain your own prior self belief in spite of all else
including conflicting information
Commodity—a good or article exchanged or traded
Conscious—made with perception, thought, will, or awareness
Comparative advantage—the ability to produce a specific good at a lower opportunity
cost than its trading partners
Conspicuous consumption—consuming a commodity to send a signal, such as piercing,
tattoos, dyed hair, flashy car, expensive jewelry
Cooperation—act or process of working or associating with others for a mutual benefit
Cost/benefit analysis—the cost of something weighed against the real benefit derived
from it
Critical—using or involving careful judgment
Economics—the study of how to allocate scarce resources among competing uses
Emotional—relating to strong feelings of the mind and body
Empathy—the capacity of feeling another persons emotions as one’s own
Equilibrium—a balance point or state of affairs that is impossible to improve upon by
doing more of one thing and less of another
Externality—outside benefit or risk given beside the intended product, such as the
pleasing aroma of a bakery, second hand smoke, air pollution, etc. Fairness—equal
treatment of all concerned
Full disclosure principle—when the first few disclose, then all need to follow suit
to stay in the standing
Inconsistency—not logical in thought or pattern, incompatible, or lacking agreement
Law of diminishing marginal returns—as more and more of one kind of item is
encountered, each additional item gives less positive utility, eating your second candy
bar does not have as much satisfaction as the first
Marginal—taking a small step at a time, incremental to test the market and not risk
as much loss
Maximize—make the most of
Morality—ethical behavior displaying the principles of right and wrong, virtue
Mutual—profits, benefits, costs, etc. shared amongst those participating
Opportunity cost—the most desired goods or services that are forgone in order to
obtain something else ("The Road Not Taken" by Robert Frost)
Probability—the likelihood of an outcome expressed as the frequency with which it is
theoretically expected to occur
Rational—having reason or understanding, the ability to think about what you want
Reciprocity—mutual cooperation or exchange between people
Regret theory—theory that one chooses the decision that will bring the least regret
Risk—the chance of loss or exposure to danger or hazard
Risk averse—sure money, putting risk aside
Sequential—following one another in order
Signals—hints, cues, or signs that suggest a certain message or action, a company may
offer a very good warranty signaling that it believes it has a quality product
Spontaneous—at the same time, simultaneous
Subjectivity—relating to what is in one’s mind or thinking
Time inconsistency—not enough time is allocated for the task at hand, or person
misjudges time necessary to complete a task
Uncertainty—unknown
Unit Plan
"The Road Not Taken"
1. Determining the problems
Chocolate War
a. Clarification
b..Possible solutions
c. Opportunity/cost
d. Cost/benefit analysis
e. Risk Averse
