Cautionary Note on Census Bureau Intercensal (1991-1999) Population Estimates

Intercensal estimates are produced through a demographic procedure called the "component change" method. "A major assumption underlying this approach is that the components that constitute population change can be represented by administrative data series in a statistical model". In essence, the estimates are created by "starting with the most recent decennial census figure and updating that figure with information on births, deaths, domestic migration (in/out flows with other counties in the U.S.), and international migration (in/out flows with other countries) that have occurred between the census date and the date of the population estimate. Birth and death data are obtained through vital statistics, domestic migration is estimated through the address matching of federal tax returns, and international migration data is supplied by the Immigration and Naturalization Service". 1/