Christopher K. Butler
Superpower Dispute Initiation: An Empirical Model of Strategic Behavior
WORKING PAPER
2006
Abstract
I present a method for empirically modeling simultaneous decisions using the estimation technique of bivariate probit. I use this technique to examine the directed disputeinitiation behavior of the superpowers during the Cold War. I argue that power-transition concepts of satisfaction and rates of capability change can be used to explain directed dispute-initiation behavior. In particular, the international influence of the rival translates into a superpower’s dissatisfaction, making dispute initiation by that superpower more likely, ceteris paribus. Additionally, a rapid strengthening of the challenger, ceteris paribus, increases the likelihood of dispute initiation in either direction. Changes in the hegemon’s capabilities, though consistent with power-transition theory, have no effect on dispute-initiation behavior. These effects hold even while controlling for various domestic conditions in each country.
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