Christopher K. Butler and Scott Gates
Asymmetry, Parity, and (Civil) War: Can International Theories of Power Help Us Understand Civil War
FORTHCOMING
International Interactions September 2009.
Abstract
The concept of relative power is ubiquitous and long-held in understanding conflict. As a ratio of the weaker side's capabilities compared to the stronger side's capabilities, relative power ranges
from extreme asymmetry (where the weaker side has almost no capabilities) to parity (where the capabilities of the two sides are equal). Power theories link relative power to international
outcomes, especially armed conflict. In this essay, we examine the applicability of power theories to civil armed conflicts, involving a government and a rebel group. Many theories of power and conflict build on Thucydides' adage of “The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”. These theories, however, provide only limited understanding of civil war. A different logic than that provided by international relations theory is required to understand civil armed conflict. This logic rests on the inability of the government to attack a rebel group directly if the rebel group engages in asymmetric warfare.
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