The University of New Mexico
Eric Wallace and Christopher K. Butler
Losing Hearts and Minds
WORK IN PROGRESS
2010

Abstract

We have simulated the effects of one-sided collective-targeted violence on a heterogeneous public. The public is assumed to have a uniform density distribution over a political space bounded by a group of the left (L) and a group of the right (R). The two groups and members of the public pull the members of the public within the political space in proportion to their density (or political clout). Members of the public can have positive (friendship), negative (enmity), or neutral affinity toward either of the two group actors (L and R). Affinity is our way of modeling the "hearts and minds" of the public. Positive affinity acts as an additional pull toward an actor; negative affinity acts as a push away from an actor. We assume that the collective-targeted violence perpetrated by one actor (here, R) engenders enmity toward that actor by members of the public who are linked to eliminated agents. Applying this mechanism to different social-network structures produces different results. Collective targeting given a complete network is clearly counterproductive. Collective targeting given a partitioned network that correlates perfectly with the political space seems to be a plausible strategy for eliminating potential opposition recruits. The effects of other social-network structures will be examined more systematically in future analysis.

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Department of Political Science The University of New Mexico Department of Political Science The University of New Mexico