Prepared for Presentation at the
Fulbright Institute Conference on International Affairs
University of Arkansas
April 5-6, 2001
A Decade of Post-Communism:
The Fate of Democracy in
Eastern Europe
and the Former Soviet Union
Preconference Draft---March 26, 2001
Gregory Gleason
University of New Mexico
Albuquerque, NM 87131 USA
505-277-7391 (desk) 505-277-3161 (fax)
Email: gleasong@unm.edu Website: www.unm.edu/~gleasong
A recent increase in insurgency and political instability is imperiling the modest gains of a decade of national consolidation in the states of Central Asia. Confronted by religious and political extremism, terrorism, and national separatism, the governments of the region have redoubled security measures and imposed new constraints upon domestic political opposition. The counterinsurgency measures instituted by the governments have the announced goal of neutralizing terrorists and bandits. But the governments have cast a wide net, ensnaring legitimate critics and opponents as well as many perfectly innocent victims. Surveying the five countries of Central Asia over the past decade, this paper analyzes progress in achieving the goals of popularly supported and accountable government. The paper analyzes the rise of militant Islamic opposition to the governments as a factor constraining the governments’ reform and development strategies. The paper concludes that the prospects for democratic reform in the region are less promising today than a decade ago. At the same time, the paper argues that the rise of insurgency is also inclining the governments toward a new level of inter-state cooperativeness. This new level of inter-state cooperation offers prospects for mitigating the most anti-democratic tendencies in the region.