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Free Markets=20 and Free Minds

Friday, = February 22,=20 2002
World, February 21, 2002
By Gregory Gleason and = Benjamin=20 Ellison*, TCA


NEW MEXICO (TCA). As the Central = Asian=20 states enter their second decade of independence, there are = great=20 expectations throughout the entire Eurasian region. Only a = few=20 months ago, analysts pointed to the unwillingness of = regional=20 governments to implement true reforms as the main factor = obstacle to=20 economic growth. Analysts argued that the region's = underdeveloped=20 infrastructure for transport and communication was crippling = trade=20 and investment. And they warned that political extremism and = the=20 Afghanistan drug trade were scaring investors out of the = region.=20

New roles of the "Stans"

Now, with the = resolution of=20 the Afghanistan dilemma, a qualitatively new level of = international=20 cooperation is sweeping across the entire region. Business = risks in=20 Central Asia are still great, but potential business returns = are=20 unparalleled.

The new government in Afghanistan will = soon be=20 reopening the country's borders to trans-Asia trade and=20 communication. The Central Asian governments of Kazakhstan,=20 Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are = also=20 looking forward now to fundamentally new roles in a = transformed=20 Eurasia. There is genuine discussion once again about = fostering=20 greater foreign investment and promoting trade. The dialogue = of=20 governments in Central Asia is shifting away from = inward-looking=20 policies of protectionism to outward-looking policies = designed to=20 take advantage of new opportunities in the post-conflict = Eurasian=20 economic expansion.

International financial = institutions now=20 are planning programs that will make Afghanistan's = post-conflict=20 reconstruction efforts the most comprehensive and largest=20 multilateral assistance program in history. While the United = Nations=20 is taking the lead in the reconstruction process, it is = actually the=20 multilateral financial institutions such as the World Bank = and the=20 Asian Development Bank that will be responsible for = financing and=20 carrying out the reconstruction plans. The development banks = are=20 rapidly developing programs for a region that they had = virtually=20 ignored only a few months ago.

The world's major = nations are=20 also looking at Central Asia with entirely new eyes. The = grand=20 political changes that are taking place are nothing less = than=20 remarkable. The Afghanistan conflict has had the effect of = improving=20 Russia's relations with other major nations.

Signs = of=20 changed relationships

Russia's historical role in = Central=20 Asia during the past decade led to recriminations over the = country's=20 past political influence in Central Asia. This had the = effect of=20 limiting Russia's ability to play a key role as a northern = market=20 for Central Asia's raw materials. But in the wake of the = Afghanistan=20 reorganization and after a decade of a much diminished = political=20 role in Central Asian, Russian business leaders and = politicians are=20 encountering appeals for greater, not less, interaction in = Central=20 Asia. Kyrgyz President Askar Akaev's recent announcement of = Russian=20 as an official state language of Kyrgyzstan is symbolic of = the=20 restoration of Russia's increasing role in the region. =

The=20 greatly increased visibility of the American government in = Central=20 Asia is another sign of qualitatively changed relationships. = Many=20 people previously speculated that U.S. influence could only = rise in=20 the region if Russian influence slackened. But now many are = coming=20 to believe that joint Russian and American influence can = contribute=20 to mutually advantageous aims.

American diplomats = now=20 routinely scoff at references to the "Great Game", asserting = that=20 the conditions of 19th Century Great Power conflicts have = nothing in=20 common with the globalized and highly interconnected world = of the=20 21st Century. Elizabeth Jones, the U.S. Assistant Secretary = of State=20 who recently announced a three-fold increase in U.S. = financial=20 assistance to Uzbekistan, sees the American influence in = Central=20 Asia as purely based on mutual interest. She has stated that = the=20 United States has no intention of establishing a permanent = military=20 presence in Central Asia.

Transforming the whole=20 region

The Central Asian countries are poised for an = economic=20 boom that could transform the whole region within a decade, = creating=20 wealth and eliminating poverty more successfully than the = economic=20 experience of the "Asian Tigers." Kazakhstan's economy is on = an=20 upward curve, having grown a remarkable 13 percent in 2001.=20 Economists see the growth as likely to continue, as = Kazakhstan is=20 expected to emerge as the world's second largest oil = exporter within=20 the decade.

With the reopening of Afghanistan,=20 Turkmenistan's substantial natural gas reserves may now be = able to=20 find commercially feasible access to market through new=20 trans-Afghanistan gas pipelines. And Uzbekistan's landlocked = industrial producers may now find that Uzbekistan's = neighbors are=20 anxious to open their borders to greater foreign trade. An = impetus=20 for this trade will be the new, freely convertible Uzbek = currency=20 that the Uzbek government has announced it will bring into = being=20 within the next six months.

Whether the first decade = of the=20 21st Century leads to an economic boom comparable to that of = the=20 "Asian Tigers" or to greater economic conflict for resources = and=20 markets is now, more than any thing else, up to the = countries=20 themselves. The past decade has made it clear that free = markets do=20 not just mean that governments "permit" businesses to exist. = Vibrant=20 markets require a close partnership between business and = government.=20

The formula for markets

For the Central Asian = market=20 to prosper, there has to be partnerships based not on family = ties,=20 government special bargains, or insider deals but, rather, = on=20 openness, transparency, due process, and respect for the = rights of=20 all the parties in society.

In the post-communist=20 transition, all Central Asian governments have emphasized = strong,=20 discretionary, and authoritarian leadership. Leaders = explained that=20 "strong leadership" would allow them to act swiftly and = decisively=20 to make difficult decisions in the public interest, assuring = social=20 and economic stability and neutralizing political = opposition.=20 Government officials argued that democracies have difficulty = carrying out reforms that demand sacrifices because elected=20 officials shrink from adopting tough choices. But government = control=20 of the Central Asian private sector crowded out individual=20 initiative, leading to government domination and strained = relations=20 with society.

The formula for opening markets to = foreign=20 direct investment is no mystery. It depends upon trust. = True, some=20 individual investors may try to take advantage of special = deals that=20 authoritarian leaders can offer them. But the really = important=20 investment comes from a broad spectrum of producers, = consumers,=20 traders, and buyers, ranging from individuals of modest = means to=20 global, institutional investors.

These people are = all alike=20 in that they need fair markets to calculate the risks = involved. They=20 are all alike in demanding predictability of government = policies,=20 limits on corrupt practices, protection of property rights, = fairness=20 in taxation, and equitable adjudication of disputes. If = governments=20 can deliver these goods, the markets can do what they do = best. The=20 governments' most important economic task is to create the=20 conditions under which markets can flourish.

With=20 unparalleled international support to help establish the = conditions=20 for regional political stability and cooperation, Central = Asia's=20 governments now have an opportunity to protect civil rights = by=20 freeing restrictions on the press and fundamental personal = freedoms=20 and by turning to international standards of democratic = process. The=20 right conditions can lead to a transformation in Central = Asia within=20 a generation. Free minds and free markets go hand in=20 hand.

*Gregory Gleason specializes in international = affairs=20 at the University of New Mexico. Benjamin Ellison = specializes in=20 international energy law at the University of Texas.=20


Copyright =A9 2001 The Times of Central = Asia=20

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