The New Mexico economy continued to expand at a moderate pace during the third quarter of 2004. Nonagricultural employment increased 2.1 percent, following a 2 percent gain in the second quarter of the year. Employment growth has been on a gradual incline since slipping to one percent in the second quarter of 2003. Personal income growth reached a robust 6.5 percent during the second quarter of 2004. The third quarter unemployment rate fell to 5.4 percent.
The economy added 16,400 net new jobs in the third quarter of 2004, compared to the same period last year. The largest contributor of jobs was again the health care and social assistance sector, which enjoyed an employment gain of 4,300 or 4.9 percent. Government, the largest sector, added 3,267 jobs, a 1.7 percent gain.
Although housing was off substantially, employment in the construction industry continued its recent pattern of substantial growth posting a 5.4 percent gain. In the mining sector, employment growth has held steady at close to 4 percent for the past four quarters, including 4.7 percent in the third quarter. Most of the gain was in oil and gas exploration and drilling, in response to continuing high-energy prices.
The outlook for the New Mexico economy is good, although not exceptional. Following 1.2 percent gains in both 2002 and 2003, nonagricultural employment growth will increase to 1.9 percent in 2004 and 2.3 percent in 2005. As has been the case for several years, the health care and social assistance industry will be a major provider of new jobs during the next couple of years.
In addition, the construction sector will continue to exhibit solid growth, manufacturing will return as a significant source of strength, and the government sector will exhibit moderate but consistent gains. Overall, the New Mexico economy is looking good in the near term, and will probably continue to out-perform the national economy.
For readers interested in keeping tabs on the New Mexico economy, the Bureau of Business and Economic Research at UNM has two publications available by subscription, a monthly summary of recent economic trends, and a quarterly economic forecasting newsletter. For more information call BBER Senior Economist Larry Waldman at (277-7077) or by e-mail lwaldman@unm.edu.
Contact: Steve Carr, (505) 277-1821
Posted by scarr at December 20, 2004 09:07 AM