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2008 UNM Student Lifestyles Survey: Summary of Results

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2008 Student Lifestyles Survey: Summary of Findings (n=838)

  • 4.01 is the mean average number of drinks consumed per week for all students.
  • 41% of all students reported drinking no alcohol in an average week, and
  • 29% of all students reported drinking no alcohol in the past 30 days.
  • 44% of all students reported having had five or more drinks in a sitting on one or more occasions over the past two weeks.
  • 71% of all students reported having had alcohol on one or more days in the past 30 days.
  • Perception of risk of drinking and driving: 74% of students reported they were somewhat likely to very likely to be arrested for DWI if they were driving after having had too much to drink.
  • Social norms about drinking and driving: 90% of students reported they thought their closest friends would disapprove or strongly disapprove if they drove a car while under the influence of alcohol.
  • 30 day marijuana prevalence: 26% of all students reported having had marijuana on one or more days in the past 30 days.
  • Designated Drivers: 67% of students reported serving as a sober designated driver in the past year.

Blackouts Linked to Alcoholism (04/22/03)

New research suggests that people who have partial blackouts after binge drinking may be more likely to drink heavily in the future, New Science reported April 14.

In a study involving 1,078 college students who were weekly binge drinkers, scientists at the University of Texas in Austin found that drinkers who had partial memory blackouts had more optimistic attitudes about alcohol's effect on them. For example, participants believed that alcohol makes them more sociable, sexually attractive, or assertive.

Based on the study's findings, the researchers concluded that drinkers who experience "fragmentary blackouts" are more likely to have a faulty memory of the drinking experience and fill in the gaps with positive beliefs.

Psychologist William Corbin, who was part of the research team, said drinking blackouts appear to increase the likelihood of people drinking heavily in the future. "It could identify people more at risk," he said.

This information has been reproduced with the consent of Join Together Online.

Younger Drinkers Risk Damaging Brain Cells (12/10/02)

The American Medical Association issued a report yesterday showing that adolescents and young adults who drink alcohol may risk long-lasting brain damage, particularly related to learning, memory and critical thinking. The report is a synthesis of nearly two decades of research on alcohol and the brain.

While individuals may joke about killing brain cells as they guzzle their beers, the research suggests that even as little as a few beers can actually cause harm.

Recent advances in neuroimaging and other technologies make it possible for scientists to better understand and detail the effects of alcohol on the brain. One of the first findings is that the brain appears to be especially susceptible to damage during high school and college.

Although the brain stops its physical growth around the age of five, the brain cells continue to refine and realign themselves until at least age 20. "We know that some of the most critical wiring doesn't even kick in until the second decade of life," says Scott Swartzwelder, a neuropsychologist at Duke University and the Department of Veteran Affairs.

Two regions of the brain appear the most vulnerable to damage in young drinkers: the hippocampus, a structure lcated deep in the brain responsible for memory and learning; and the prefrontal cortex, which is tucked behind the forehead and involved in decision-making and reasoning.

Using magnetic resonance imaging to look deep into subjects'gray matter,psychologist Michael DeBellis and colleagues at the University of Pittsburgh found that girls ages 14 to 21, with serious drinking problems had 10 percent smaller hippocampi than did nondrinking peers and that the girls who had been drinking the longest had the smallest hippocampi.

Perhaps most alarming, is that researchers are finding that it's not just heavy or binge drinking that can have negative consequences. In a study of 21-to-24 year-olds,Duke researchers found that after three drinks (with BACs slightly below the .08 legal limit), volunteers were 25 percent less accurate on memory tests. According to Swartzwelder, the brain is influenced the most by alcohol during the period in which it's tasked the most - the high school and college years. "It's exactly the wrong time to do the most heavy drinking," he says.

Despite growing evidence of alcohol's effect on the young brain, Swartzwelder and others caution that it is too early to reach definitive conclusions. For example, it is not clear whether alcohol causes a young person's hippocampus to shrivel, or whether a small hippocampus is more likely to cause heavy drinking.
(Reprint from Join Together Online)

Alcohol Poisoning - A Wake Up Call (11/28/01)

Each year about 50 students from universities and colleges across the nation die from alcohol poisoning - almost one every weekend!

This statistic suddenly took on a personal meaning in November 2001, when Kevin Johns, a bright, and well-respected UNM freshman, succumbed to alcohol poisoning after reportedly consuming more than 20 shots of liquor at an off-campus party. Although the massive alcoholic quantity Kevin consumed in such a short period of time was atypical, there are other UNM students who also engage in dangerous drinking games, thus placing themselves at risk for serious problems including alcohol poisoning.

Kevin's tragic death should serve as a wake up call to everyone who has ever participated in a drinking game, for there is no such thing as a "safe drinking game"- it is an oxymoron of serious proportions!

How does alcohol poisoning occur?

The drug alcohol is a central nervous system depressant that produces numerous behavioral, emotional, and physical effects as it acts upon specific parts of the brain. First to be affected is the cerebrum, the part of your brain that controls advanced functions like recognition, vision, reasoning, and emotion. At low intake levels, alcohol reduces inhibitions and affects judgment; vision, movement, and speech are impaired as alcohol levels rise. When the next brain area - the cerebellum- is depressed by alcohol, problems with coordination, reflexes, and balance result.


The medulla controls basic survival functions such as breathing and heartbeat and is the last portion of your brain to be affected. When you've consumed so much alcohol that the medulla is affected, your brain's ability to control respiration and heart rate is severely diminished. Your heart rate can drop and breathing ceases, resulting in a coma and then death.

How much alcohol is lethal?

The lethal dose of alcohol is clinically defined as the amount that would kill half the population. Most authorities place this dose at about .40%, or about five times the legal limit in New Mexico. However, there are many cases in which death occurred from alcohol poisoning at much lower, and in some cases, higher levels. For a 120 lb. man or woman drinking very quickly, it would only take about 9-10 drinks in an hour to reach the lethal level.


It's important to note that the body oxidizes about one ounce (approximately one drink) an hour. Depending upon how much you drink, how quickly you drink, and what else is in your stomach, it may take from about 30-90 minutes after you stop drinking before you reach your highest level of intoxication. This occurs whether the individual is conscious or passed out, thus it is critical that someone who is semi-conscious or unconscious be constantly evaluated.

Symptoms of alcohol poisoning
· Vomiting
· Passed out
· Difficult to awaken
· Slow, shallow breathing

What to do if you suspect alcohol poisoning

There are steps you should take if you encounter someone who could be suffering from acute alcohol poisoning. It's dangerous to assume a person will be fine by "just sleeping it off."

1. First, determine if the person is at all attentive. Can they be awakened? Try and call their name. Pinch their skin - they should have a reaction. (Remember, alcohol is a depressant that numbs the nerves so pinching the skin will help you gauge how far along in the "overdose" process they are. If they are unresponsive to your attempts to awaken them - get immediate medical help!

2. Turn the person on their side and do not leave them alone. Placing them on their side will keep the airway open should they vomit.

3. Check skin color and temperature. If their skin is pale or bluish, or cold or clammy, call 911! They are not getting enough oxygen.

4. Check the person's breathing. If it is irregular with a few breaths and then nothing for a while, call 911. If their breathing is too slow or shallow - less than 10 breaths a minute - this is another signal to get help.

5. There are no absolutes and these are just some of the potential signs of acute alcohol poisoning. A person may have one, or all of these signs. There is no guarantee that if a person is breathing 11 times a minute they will be fine, or if they are breathing 8 times a minute they will die. If you cannot wake the person up at all, it is a serious situation. If you are at all concerned, don't hesitate to get help.

What if it is a false alarm?

In the end, it's all about friendship. You may not want to act because you're afraid when your friend wakes up he or she will be mad at you, but at least your friend will wake up! And how upset can anyone really be when they realize you did it out of concern and friendship?

There is only one response you can trust at that moment - "better safe than sorry." The drinker may risk a policy sanction and maybe some embarrassment, but it will pass. None of these consequences compare to losing a life.

Don't let fear about how your friend will respond tomorrow prevent you from getting help when needed. Make sure you and your friend have the next day to talk it over. It may be the greatest thing you could ever do in the name of friendship!

(Reprint from from The Daily Lobo; Jill Anne Yeagley, author)

Drinking Alcohol Affects Waistline Unevenly (09/24/03)

New research finds that how much alcohol you drink, as well as how often you drink and what you drink, will show on your waistline, the Netscape Network reported Sept. 24, 2003.

Epidemiologists at the University at Buffalo studied the impact of drinking and chronic disease risk by studying abdominal fat accumulation.

The study involved 2,343 randomly selected healthy men and women between the ages of 39 and 75. The researchers found that wine drinkers had the least amount of abdominal fat, while liquor drinkers had the highest. In addition, those who binge drank had more abdominal fat compared to participants who drank small amounts of alcohol on a regular basis.

"These findings support what has been shown in other studies about the beneficial effect of moderate drinking on heart disease," said lead study author Joan Dorn. "It also is more evidence that the way people drink is important, and not just the amount of alcohol consumed."

The study's findings are published in the August 2003 issue of the Journal of Nutrition. Reprinted from Join Together Online.

Brain Damage Seen in Heavy Social Drinkers (04/15/04)

Brain scans of heavy social drinkers revealed the same type of brain damage as suffered by hospitalized alcoholics. However, it is rare for social drinkers to recognize any reduction in coginitive functioning, Reuters reported April 14.

According to researchers at Vanderbilt University in Tennessee and the University of California San Francisco (UCSF), damage was evident in the brains of 46 individuals who drank more than 100 alcoholic drinks a month for three years prior to the study. In addition, problems were found in reading, balance, and function tests.

"Heavy drinkers were significantly impaired on measures of working memory, processing speed, attention, executive function, and balance," the researchers wrote.

The amount of brain damage, the researchers said, was enough to impair day-to-day functioning. It was the same pattern of damage seen in alcohol-addicted individuals hospitalized or undergoing treatment.

"Socially functioning heavy drinkers often do not recognize that their level of drinking constitutes a problem that warrants treatment," the researchers wrote in their report.

Authors of the study, Dieter Meyerhoff of UCSF and Dr. Peter Martin of Vanderbilt, said social drinkers might not notice any problems with their cognitive functioning. "What our findings indicate is that the brain damage is detectable in heavy drinkers who are not in treatment and function relatively well in the community," said Meyerhoff.

The study's findings are published in the Journal Alcoholism: Clinical & Experimental Research. Reprinted from Join Together Online.

College Rapes Linked to Binge-Drinking Rates (02/17/04)

Research shows that alcohol is a key factor in the majority of college rapes, and more rapes occur on campuses where binge-drinking rates are highest, the Collegiate Presswire reported February 12.

In a study of 119 college campuses nationwide, researchers at the Harvard School of Public Health, St. Joseph's University, and the University of Arizona found that women from colleges with medium and high binge-drinking rates were nearly twice as likely to be raped while intoxicated than those from schools with low binge-drinking rates.

Furthermore, of the college women who reported being raped since the beginning of the school year, 72 percent were so intoxicated that they were unable to consent or refuse.

"This study reveals that a woman's chance of being raped is far more pronounced on campuses where the student body as a whole engages in a high rate of binge drinking and when individuals consume a large amount of alcohol," said Melchun Mohler-Kuo, Sc.D., lead author of the study and a research scientist at the College Alcohol Studies program at the Harvard School of Public Health.

Mary Koss, Ph.D., professor of public health at the University of Arizona and a co-author of the study, added, "This study points to an urgent need for more alcohol prevention programs on campuses, along with sexual assault education. Men need education about what constitutes rape, and women should be better informed of strategies to avoid risky situations."

The study, "Correlates of Rape While Intoxicated in a National Sample of College Women," was funded by the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation. The study's findings are published in the January 2004 issue of the Journal of Studies on Alcohol.

Study Links Drinking with Obesity (02/17/05)

How much you drink at once, and how often you drink, could have an effect on how much you weigh, according to research from the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (NIAAA).

A study of drinking and body mass index (BMI): a person's weight in relation to their height, found that those who drank the least tended to have the lowest BMI scores. "In our study, men and women who drank the smallest quantity of alcohol -- one drink per drinking day, with the greatest frequency -- three to seven days per week -- had the lowest BMI's, while those who infrequently consumed the greatest quantity had the highest BMI's," said lead NIAAA researcher Rosalind A. Breslow, Ph.D.

Binge drinkers, in other words, may be more likely to be overweight, although Breslow cautioned against drawing a cause-and-effect relationship from the study.

"Alcohol consumption consists of two components: the amount consumed on drinking days (quantity) and how often drinking days occur (frequency)," said Breslow. "Previous studies generally examined drinking based only on average volume consumed over time. However, average volume provides a limited description of alcohol consumption as it does not account for drinking patterns. For example, an average volume of 7 drinks per week could be achieved by consuming 1 drink each day or 7 drinks on a single day. Average volume may not fully explain important relations between quantity and frequency of drinking and health outcomes such as obesity."

Breslow said that weight gain could be attributable to alcohol use stimulating hunger, or the failure of liquid caloried in alcohol to trigger feelings of fullness.

The study looked at data on 37,000 nonsmoking adults. The research was printed in the Feb. 15, 2005, issue of the American Journal of Epidemiology. Reprinted from Join Together Online.

Injuries Rise with Alcohol-Energy Drink Mix (11/06/07)

College students often mix alcohol with energy drinks so they can drink more and longer, researchers say, but the strategy can lead to more alcohol-related injuries, too.

Fox News reported Nov. 5 that researchers from Wake Forest University School of Medicine found that students who mixed alcohol and drinks like Red Bull had double the risk of being hurt or injured, requiring medical attention, riding with an intoxicated driver, being taken advantage of sexually, or taking advantage of another sexually.

Lead researcher Mary Claire O'Brien said she and colleagues "were surprised that the risk of serious and potentially deadly consequences is so much higher for those who mixed energy drinks with alcohol, even when we adjusted for the amount of alcohol."

"Students whose motor skills, visual reaction times, and judgment are impaired by alcohol may not perceive they are intoxicated as readily when they're also ingesting a stimulant," said O'Brien. "Only the symptoms of drunkenness are reduced - but not the drunkenness. They can't tell if they're drunk; they can't tell if someone else is drunk. So they get hurt, or they hurt someone else."

The findings were based on an Internet survey of more than 4,000 students from 10 universities. About a quarter of those who drank alcohol within the past month said they mixed alcohol and energy drinks. Mixing was more prevalent among males, whites, older students, intramural athletes, and fraternity/sorority members and pledges.

The findings were reported at the annual meeting of the American Public Health Association in Washington, D.C. Reprinted with permission from Join Together Online.

Light Smoking, Heavy Risks (08/22/05)

People considered light smokers - those who smoke fewer than five cigarettes a day - still greatly increase their risk of dying from heart disease or lung cancer, according to Norwegian researchers.

Reuters reported Sept. 21 that researchers from the Norwegian Institute of Public Health examined the health and death records of 43,000 men and women who had been screened for heart disease at the beginning of a study that began in the 1970's.

"In both sexes, smoking 1- 4 cigarettes per day was associated with a significantly higher risk of dying from ischemic heart disease and from all causes, and from lung cancer in women," said Dr. Aage Tverdal of the Norweigan Institute of Public Health in Oslo.

Male light smokers were there times more likely to die of lung cancer than nonsmokers; female light smokers were five times more likely to die from the disease. The research was published in the journal Tobacco Control.

Smoking Raises Risk of Erectile Problems (09/27/07)

Better hold off on smoking a cigarette after sex: a new study finds that smokers face an increased risk of erectile dysfunction, and sexual problems are greater among those who smoke more, Reuters reported Sept. 26.

Researcher Jiang He of Tulane University School of Public Health and colleagues reported that male smokers had a 41 percent greater risk of erectile dysfunction than nonsmokers. Among men who smoked up to 10 cigarettes per day, risk increased 27 percent; risk rose 45 percent among those who smoked 11 to 20 cigarettes daily, and those who smoked a pack a day or more were 65 percent more likely to have erectile problems.

"The association between cigarette smoking and erectile dysfunction was found in earlier studies," said He. "However, most of those studies were conducted in patients with hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. What distinguishes this study is that it is the first to find this association among healthy men."

"This study really has a strong message for young men," He added. "It may get their attention if they know that smoking is associated with erectile dysfunction - even in the healthy population."

The reseach was published in the Oct. 1, 2007, issue of the American Journal of Epidemiology and reprinted from Join Together Online.

Young Female Smokers Face Higher Breast Cancer Risk (07/20/07)

Young female smokers who have not had children appear to face an increased risk of developing breast cancer, Reuters reported July 16.

Researchers studied 56,042 women taking part in a long-term study and found that the risk of breast cancer rose in relation to how much women smoked before giving birth to their first child. For example, women with children who had smoked for 10 "pack years" (the number of packs smoked daily times the number of years smoked) before having their first baby were 78 percent more likely to develop breast cancer than nonsmokers.

"Our results are consistent with the biologic data indicating that the female breast is sensitive to tobacco carcinogens before first childbirth," the study by Mina Ha of Dankook University College of Medicine in Cheonan, Korea and colleagues concluded.

Girls who smoked before starting menstruation may be at even higher risk, the researchers added; the study suggest that breast tissue may be more vulnerable to carcinogens while it is still developing. Researchers found no link between pack-years smoked and breast cancer after the first child was born.

The study appears in the July 1, 2007, issue of the American Journal of Epidemiology and summarized in Join Together Online.

Female Smokers Risk Cervical Cancer 04/10/06

A review of 23 studies concludes that women who smoke are at 60 percent higher risk of developing cervical cancer than nonsmoker, with risk rising with the number of cigarettes smoked, Reuters reported April 7.

Women who start smoking at a young age also are at a higher risk, although duration of smoking did not appear to increase exposure, according to researchers taking part in the International Collaboration of Epidemiological Studies of Cervical Cancer. "It is not clear why this association was present," said lead researcher Amy Berrington de Gonzales. "One possible explanation is that duration of smoking was reported less accurately than age at starting smoking, and age at starting smoking is acting as a surrogate for duration of smoking , i.e., earlier age of at starting smoking is a marker of longer duration."

The study was published in the March 15, 2006, issue of the International Journal of Cancer.

Heart Hurt by Chewing Tobacco as Well as Smoking (08/21/06)

All types of tobacco can cause heart disease, not just smoking, according to a large international study led by researchers at the University of Hamilton in Ontario, Canada.

Web MD reported Aug. 117 that researchers looked at health data on 27,000 people from 52 countries and concluded that "tobacco use is one of the most important causes of heart attack globally, especially in men. All forms of tobacco use, including different types of smoking and chewing tobacco and inhalation of secondhand smoke, should be discouraged."

The study found that smokers triple their risk of having a heart attack, but chewing tobacco also doubles the risk of heart attack. People exposed to one to seven hours of secondhand smoke weekly have a 24 percent higher risk of heart attack, while those who are exposed to 21 hours or more of secondhand smoke per week are 62 percent more likely to have a heart attack, the study said.

The research appears in the August 19, 2006, issue of The Lancet.

Smoking Causes 11 Types of Cancer

A 50-year study concludes that smoking causes at least 11 types of cancer in men, with lung cancer the top killer, the British Medical Journal reported Feb. 5.

Researchers looked at mortality data on 30,000 male British doctors, focusing on the 34,439 who first identified themselves as smokers in 1951. "In all, 11 of the 13 types in men...classed as liable to be caused by smoking were signifiantly related to smoking and the findings for the other two, which caused only few deaths, suggested they might be," wrote authors Richard Doll, RIchard Peto, and colleagues from the Radcliffe Infirmary in Oxford, England.

The researchers found that heavy smokers were 25 times more likely to die of lung cancer than their nonsmoking peers. Risk of dying of lung cancer increased with the number of cigarettes smoked, with heavy smokers three times more likely to get lung cancer than light smokers (those who smoked fewer thant 15 cigarettes per day).

Other cancers linked to smoking included malignanceies of the esophagus, bladder, larynx, pancreas, and rectal, nasal, and nasopharyngeal cancers. However, colon and prostate cancer appeared to be unrelated to smoking.

The study was published in the January 25, 2005, issue of the British Journal of Cancer and reprinted from Join Together Online.

Cancer Risk Falls 70 Percent When Smokers Quit (03/27/07)

A study of half a million adults concludes that quitting smoking lowers your risk of dying from lung cancer by 70 percent, researchers say.

The George Institute for International Health reported that the Asia-Pacific Cohort Studies Collaboration also found that the risk of dying from lung cancer was about 20 times higher among females smokers than among men.

"If interventions only focus on prevention, then 160 million current smokers will die before 2050, with the vast majority of deaths occurring in China," warned lead researcher Rachel Huxley. "there are huge numbers of lives to be saved through campaigns to alert current smokers to the dangers of their habit. Effective action in Asia would help to head off a significant part of the projected one billion deaths from smoking that will otherwise occur around the world this century."

The study was published online in the American Journal of Epidemiology.

Three Cigarettes a Day Can Kill You (09/09/09)

A new study from the American Heart Association finds that smoking as few as three cigarettes daily raises the risk of cardiovascular disease by 65 percent and secondhand smoke exposure raises the risk of dying from cardiovascular disease 20-30 percent.

Researchers from Brigham Young University also looked at the risk of illness from other forms of air pollution.

"It doesn't require extreme exposure to have significant cardiovascular effects. Even passive exposures to ambient air pollution and secondhand smoke contribute to significant increases in cardiovascular mortality," said study author C. Arden Pope III, Ph.D. "A critical finding of our study is that smoking is unhealthy even at small amounts. Reducing the amount one smokes does some good, but the biggest benefits come from stopping completely."

Smoking half a pack of cigarettes raised the risk of dying from heart disease by 79 percent, the researchers found, while smoking a pack a day increased the risk 100 percent.

The full study appears in the August 2009 issue of the journal, Circulation.

Hookah Delivers Carbon Monoxide Equivalent to a Pack of Cigarettes (01/04/08)

An hour spent smoking a hookah, or water pipe, delivers as much carbon monoxide to the user as smoking a pack of cigarettes, HealthDay News reported Jan. 3.

Hookah smoking has become a popular alternative to cigarette smoking in recent years, particularly among college students but, "This is not the risk-free activity they think it is," said study co-author S. Katherine Hammond of the University of California at Berkeley.

Hammond's study only looked at carbon monoxide, not other hazards of smoking. But Thomas Eissenberg of Virginia Commonwealth University, who also studied hookah use, said smoking a water pipe for 46 minutes produces 36 times more tar than smoking a cigarette for five minutes. And smoking tobacco through hookas, like cigarettes, can be addictive.

Hammond's findings were published in a letter in the Jan. 2, 2008, issue of the Journal of the American Medical Association.

Hookah Smoking Hurts Teeth (11/10/05)

Smoking tobacco from a water pipe, or hookah, is not only as unhealthy as other smoking, it's worse for your teeth, a study suggests.

WBAL-TV reported Nov. 8 that as hookah lounges proliferate in the U.S., researchers are warning that the toxins in cigarette smoke don't disappear when they are filtered by water.

"Even though the smoke is filtered out by water, inhalation of toxic substances is similar to or even greater than that of cigarette smoking," said Dr. Kenneth Krebs, president of the American Academy of Periodontology. "Not only does water-pipe smoking include the same substances as cigarette smoke such as carbon monoxide and tar, tobacco used for water-pipe smoking contains 2 to 4 percent nicotine versus 1 to 3 percent for cigarettes."

The researchers also found that 30 percent of water-pipe users suffered from smoking-related tooth diseases, compared to 24 percent of smokers and 8 percent of nonsmokers. Hookah tobacco is often sweetened with apple, mango, or other flavors, which also raises concerns about youth use.

The research was published in the November 2005 issue of the Journal of Periodontology. This summary is reprinted with permission from Join Together Online.

Health Risks of Hookah Smoking (2007)

Christopher Loffredo, director of the cancer genetics and epidemiology department at Georgetown University, found startling results when he and his colleagues compared the cheek cells of hookah and cigarette smokers to nonsmokers. Loffredo found that both sets of smokers exhibited four times the mouth damage (including gum disease) as the nonsmokers and that hookah use, like cigarettes, could lead to more addictive behavior. Loffredo also found that the quick-lighting charcoal used by many hookah users also poses an additional hazard with its greater levels of carbon monoxide.

Loffredo compares a typical hookah session as equivalent to inhaling a pack of cigarettes. He argues that although the water absorbs some of the soot, the smoker still inhales nicotine, tar, and carbon monoxide. In response to the claim that shisha doesn't have nicotine, Loffredo states that the raw material of tobacco matches that of shisha; in other words, "it's the same tobacco," says Loffredo.

"A few puffs now and then is not going to endanger anyone," says Loffredo. "The question is: is this going to lead to dangerous nicotine addiction similar to cigarettes?" Given the levels of nicotine found in shisha, Loffredo and his colleagues think such a scenario is likely.